Water to People,or People to Water?     

John Lloyd 《Ground water》2010,48(6):929-931

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The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality     

Simon J. Lloyd  R. Sari Kovats  Zaid Chalabi  Sally Brown  Robert J. Nicholls 《Climatic change》2016,134(3):441-455

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Human occupation of the northern Arabian interior during early Marine Isotope Stage 3          下载免费PDF全文

Richard P. Jennings  Ash Parton  Laine Clark‐Balzan  Tom S. White  Huw S. Groucutt  Paul S. Breeze  Adrian G. Parker  Nick A. Drake  Michael D. Petraglia 《第四纪科学杂志》2016,31(8):953-966

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Origin of glass in upper mantle xenoliths from the quaternary volcanics of Gees,West Eifel,Germany   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

A. D. Edgar  F. E. Lloyd  D. M. Forsyth  R. L. Barnett 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1989,103(3):277-286

Glasses have been analysed from six mantle-derived xenoliths (5 orthopyroxene and/or olivine-rich, 1 clinopyroxene-rich) from the Quaternary volcanics S.E. of Gees, West Eifel, Germany. The glasses in these xenoliths occur as pools surrounding and embaying spinels, as inclusions in spinels, as veins and stringers within phlogopiterich veins, and as jackets partially surrounding some of the xenoliths. Glasses analysed are felsic and characterised by low to intermediate SiO₂ (40–62 wt.%), variable CaO (1–11 wt.%) and MgO (1–4 wt.%), high Al₂O₃ (14–21 wt.%), and up to 11 wt.% Na₂O + K₂O. The jacket glasses have the lowest SiO₂, highest CaO and MgO. Variations in all of the glass compositions are similar and imply a unifying factor or process in their formation. Glass as pools and stringers within veins of phlogopite forms part of the same trends shown by all the glasses when plotted on bivariate (oxide vs SiO₂) diagrams but can be distinguished from glass surrounding and enclosed by spinels. Glasses occurring as jackets are similar in composition to those in pools and veinlets associated with phlogopite but are of quite different composition to the glasses found within the xenoliths that they partially enclose. The occurrence and chemistry of the glasses do not support such glasses as representing original or differentiated magma trapped during formation of the xenolithic assemblages. The chemistry of the glasses also makes it unlikely that they were produced by dissociation of phlogopite during ascent of the xenoliths. The most likely origin for the glasses is that they represent volatile-rich melts which migrated through upper mantle material. These melts are likely to be responsible for the heterogeneous nature of the mantle underlying this part of the West Eifel region.  相似文献   

The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range     

E. H. Lloyd  D. Warren 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(3):175-188

It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series.Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem.The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.  相似文献   

Comparing Human and Neural Network Learning of Climate Categories     

Robert Lloyd  Gregory Carbone 《The Professional geographer》1995,47(3):237-250

This study compares how humans and neural networks classify climate types. Human subjects were asked to classify climates from monthly temperature and precipitation patterns. To model their learning process, the same data were used to produce input vectors that trained a pattern associator neural network. Both human subjects and the neural network classified climates accurately after 10 rounds of supervised learning. The neural network successfully modeled the rate of human learning and the ability to learn specific climate categories. Moreover, the neural network weights used to classify climates correspond to distinct visual characteristics in temperature and precipitation. These results suggest that neural networks can model the formation of visual categories.  相似文献   

Temporal Variations of Chlorinated Solvents in Abstraction Wells   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael O. Rivett  David N. Lerner  John W. Lloyd 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1990,10(4):127-133

Data obtained during an organic water quality survey of abstraction (pumping) wells in the Triassic Sandstone Aquifer of Birmingham (U.K.) indicate that there are important variations of chlorinated solvent concentrations with time. Short-term observation of solvent concentrations with elapsed pumping time indicates widely differing well responses; such observations are important in establishing good sampling protocols. Long-term monitoring indicates that solvent concentrations, particularly trichloroethene, are often stable with time. When large solvent variations do occur, these are shown to be due to the variation in the abstraction history of the well or significant migration of solvent plumes during the monitoring period. The latter effect is particularly exemplified by rising trends in 1,1,1-trichlroethane concentrations. The changes observed in solvent concentrations during long-term monitoring of the Birmingham Aquifer are slow to occur, but often large.  相似文献   

Design and installation of a combined automatic tensiometer-piezometer system     

M. G. Anderson  M. J. Kemp  D. M. Lloyd  A. Othman 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(1):63-71

Currently available systems for monitoring both negative and positive pore pressures have certain restrictions as to their use. A system design is described that seeks to overcome some of the potentially more restrictive elements insofar as site investigations in tropical slopes are concerned. In particular, the system uses an integrated approach to both pore pressure and ancillary (e.g. raingauge) monitoring. Initial trials of the instrumentation suggest its suitability for pore pressure recording where high temporal resolution is needed in both negative and positive pressures.  相似文献   

Changes and patterns of origin regions of international tourism     

Lloyd E. Hudman  James A. Davis 《GeoJournal》1994,34(4):481-490

The dramatic political and economic changes in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East during the early 1990s have had a dramatic impact on international tourism. Between 1974 and 1990 there have been significant shifts in international tourist originations. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the changing patterns and to compare the two time periods. A key component of the study is the construction of a Population-Adjusted Travel Index which assesses the capability of a country to generate tourists relative to population characteristics. Findings indicate that Europe is still the leader in trips generated, even though the proportion from this region is declining over time. Asian countries exhibited the most marked improvement due primarily to the tremendous economic expansion taking place on the Pacific Rim. In contrast countries of the Middle East have declined in importance relative to international tourism. This is due to political and economic instability in the region.  相似文献